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Fly | 18th Sep 2008 | 閱悅樂樂, 時人時事 | (165 Reads)

前天突然殺出雷曼兄弟倒閉,美林和AIG瀕危事件,其實自美國次案問題顯現,全球金融危機已是山雨欲來。巧合地這幾天正在看一本有關經濟的書籍,內裏也輕輕的觸及了過度借貸,很多人誤以為有easy money這個現象。因為趕這個泡沫爆破潮,我不撮寫了,把原文抄錄下來,中間 “…..” 的是省略了的其他例子

 



Quote
“No cash on the table” principle – Freely available money seldom sits unclaimed for long.

In the future, as in the past, the only way to make real money will be through some combination of talent, thrift, hard work and luck.

Millions of people, however, seem to believe they can get rich in a hurry. They saw others do it in 1990s simply by transferring their money from old-economy stocks, such as General Electric or Procter & Gamble, into Oracle, Cisco Systems and other high-tech stocks that led the explosive rise of the NASDAQ Indices. More recently they saw others get rich overnight by borrowing as much as they could and buying property that, by traditional standards, was well beyond their reach.

People who think they can spot cash on the table offer confident explanations for why the usual constraints do not apply. Many bullish stock analysts in the 1990s, insisted that traditional valuations formulas were no longer valid because the Internet was changing the rules of the game.……

…..The ‘no cash on the table’ principle reminds us to be wary of opportunities that seem too good to be true. It predicted the spectacular US NASDAQ crash and the corresponding UK FTSE falls that occurred in March 2000. But together with the cost-benefit principle, it also helps us understand less spectacular patterns in ordinary markets.
Unquote

From: The Economic Naturalist



有些句語頗發人深省,而文中說 “Internet was changing the rules of the game”,使我聯想起Industrial Revolution也不曾是changed the rules of the game嗎?!

有人形容今次是金融海嘯,我認為今次的禍害比九七的金融風暴更大更深遠,九七是人為狙擊,現在是內部腐蝕,像癌細胞擴散,整個結構體系已出現問題,如同赤柱那棵古樹倒塌,還殃及無辜,你沒有借貸沒有投資也要被great depression的滔天巨浪所吞噬。

這是一個活生生、血淋淋的case study!

No cash on the table, but the cash in the our pocket will also be evaporated!

http://weblog.xanga.com/fly_pun/640612398/item.html


[1]

美股又大瀉,同事都在說AIA,買保險並不保險,看來強基金真會成為“強奸金”、“強搶金”了。

老清
[引用] | 作者 老清 | 18th Sep 2008 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[2]

看今次次級按揭中,發行商明知那些是垃圾貨,很大風險,為賺錢都照推介,就要明白當情況看來「too good to be true」時,就要打醒精神。

chuan
[引用] | 作者 chuan | 18th Sep 2008 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[3]

當人們不再相信實幹儲蓄是可以致富, 各種不可思議的投機方式便會出現. 積穀防餓是他們認為的一種老套的想法. 蜜蜂和蝴蝶的教訓, 誰可渡過寒冬; 握實cash是渡過這金融風暴的唯一辦法.

ceci
[引用] | 作者 ceci | 20th Sep 2008 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[4]

但我覺得那可樂是圓形太離譜,不過不應因此否定本書吧!


[引用] | 作者 醜奴兒 | 24th Sep 2008 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[5] Re: 老清
老清 :
美股又大瀉,同事都在說AIA,買保險並不保險,看來強基金真會成為“強奸金”、“強搶金”了。
焗你賭, 唔賭就犯法, 無法. ==

Fly
[引用] | 作者 Fly | 26th Sep 2008 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[6] Re: chuan
chuan :
看今次次級按揭中,發行商明知那些是垃圾貨,很大風險,為賺錢都照推介,就要明白當情況看來「too good to be true」時,就要打醒精神。
係呀, 通街蛤姆的時候, 原來係地震先示...

Fly
[引用] | 作者 Fly | 26th Sep 2008 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[7] Re: ceci
ceci :
當人們不再相信實幹儲蓄是可以致富, 各種不可思議的投機方式便會出現. 積穀防餓是他們認為的一種老套的想法. 蜜蜂和蝴蝶的教訓, 誰可渡過寒冬; 握實cash是渡過這金融風暴的唯一辦法.
不過我們這些老方式,咪俾人揶揄成世無發逹囉.

Fly
[引用] | 作者 Fly | 26th Sep 2008 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[8] Re: 醜奴兒
醜奴兒 :
但我覺得那可樂是圓形太離譜,不過不應因此否定本書吧!
你在說 "Cost benefit affects product design"那部份? 我覺得也有點道理, 當然有其他因素在內, 我有朋友說可能也與玻璃技術發展有關呢.

Fly
[引用] | 作者 Fly | 26th Sep 2008 | [舉報垃圾留言]